Thursday, May 14, 2015

Breaking: A New Poll Suggests the NDP is Surging

For months Tom Mulcair and the NDP have been creeping up in the polls. 

But this latest EKOS poll is still stunning.

For now it's starting to look like an orange surge. 

The federal horserace has turned into a remarkable three-way tie, driven by a surge in support for the New Democrats. Just three points now separate the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals, an echo of the results we saw about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.

Because if this is an amazing result:

Based on these results, poll guru Paul Barber — author of the TC Norris blog — estimates the Conservatives would earn a slim minority of 125 seats, with the New Democrats retaining Official Opposition status with 117. The Liberals would again be in third place with 94.

This graph gives you an even better idea of what appears to be happening.

The story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than one of a decline in their rivals’ fortunes. The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week, while the Conservatives and Liberals are both down just slightly from their rolling average over the past few weeks.

And it's all bad news for Stephen Harper.

Stephen Harper’s approval rating was already in last place when this poll was in the field; it has dropped again, and sharply, along with the directional approval rating of his government, which has reached a new low for this year. Coupled with extremely poor directional measures on both the country and federal government, one could argue that Mr. Harper may be poised for further decline.

And although as I said at the top, I am stunned by the sudden surge, I'm not really surprised.

Because although Frank Graves says it can't be attributed solely to Rachel Notley's amazing victory in Alberta...

There are clear echoes here of last week’s shocking upset in the Alberta election, but it would be a mistake to see the NDP’s rise as merely a bounce effect from Alberta. In fact, the past four months have shown a clear pattern of growing support for the New Democrats, lifting them up from 18 points in early February to 29 points today.

I can't help but believe that many Canadians must be thinking that if the NDP can win in Alberta it can win ANYWHERE.

Just like I can't help believe, that although Justin Trudeau is still holding his own, his support for Bill C-51 must be hurting him...

Especially with the Anyone But Harper crowd and the university-educated demographic. 

Two trends appear to be driving NDP success. The first is the party’s dramatic capture of the university-educated vote, which was critical to the Alberta NDP’s historic victory last week. It’s not clear if this is a ‘strategic’ response from the promiscuous progressive segment of the electorate (people who are more focused on defeating Stephen Harper than they are on electing any particular party) or just the result of rising resentment of the Harper government’s perceived anti-intellectualism.

And voters in Quebec who also seem to be abandoning him.

The second factor is the NDP taking a decisive lead in what was a logjammed Quebec race.

Because that is a real surge. Or the beginning of another orange wave.

And my friends in Montreal told me that a Mulcair rally last week was packed to the rafters including lots and lots of young people.

But whatever the reason, it is good news for all progressives. Because it shows that even after spending gazillions of our dollars to promote himself Stephen Harper is still going nowhere.

And you know that this latest poll must be driving him CRAZY...

That dirty dictator's day is coming.

The winds of change are blowing across Canada.

And we are going to destroy him...

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  1. I do not care if the cat is orange or red as long as it kills rats.

    1. hi Steve....there are a lot of Canadians out there who think like you, and I share that feeling. I have my political favourites, but all that counts for me is defeating the bestial Con regime before it destroys our country...

  2. Mulcair, Trudeau, a party of kilt wearing midgets, whatever it takes to remove the evil that is Stephen Joseph Harper.

    May I add this....

    Canadians have woken up to reality..

    Alberta is covered with toxic tailing ponds, environmental damage, ...Oil was at record highs, Alberta has been selling oil for decades, ...A little price collapse for a short time and Alberta is broke...The Alberta Cons legislated the little people to pay the price, while cutting services...Tar goop producers responded in kind, laying off 10`s of thousands of workers...

    The Canadian public now see the folly of Harpernomics...

    I expect Harper`s polling numbers to fall to 25%.....His hardcore base..

    Add in Khadr...Supreme court..Duffy, Nigel Wright, every military procurement botched...Every Con seam is bursting.

    And today...Before even one shovel is in the ground...The new bridge being built, ...Should be complete by 2021..

    Harper had a photo-op, named the bridge after Gordie Howe...

    The name is fine, a photo-op and presser when completion is 5 years out..

    I know Harper is getting desperate.


    1. hi Grant...yes I saw him in Windsor, and he is desperate. All I can say is I'm grateful he didn't put on a Gordie Howe jersey and start playing ball hockey. But please don't be too harsh on kilts, because I'm from the highlands, I occasionally wear one, and when our enemies see us charging at them, and our hairy legs, they start running....;)

  3. Anonymous2:59 AM

    Take a long hard look at this poll Stevie for it is the beginning of your end. The people are finally waking up to the fact that you are a blight, a cancer that's tried to spread its disease into every facet of our lives. Everything you touch gets twisted into your grotesque "vision" for this country but thank God the tipping point has finally arrived. I envision your final days as you retreating to your bunker deep in the bowels of parliement hill as the orange wave approaches, there's nothing you can do to stop it, the madness takes over and your legacy is complete.

    1. hi JD...yes it is only a poll, but EKOS called the election in Alberta just about perfectly, and the way the trend line for the NDP is rising like a rocket, tells me that the election in Alberta could be a watershed moment. Because while I may wonder what's going on in the rest of the country, I know that's why the NDP's support is on the rise in Quebec. For people sometimes forget what caused Layton's orange wave in that province. And the fact is Quebecers are less attached to the federal parties than people in the rest of Canada so they can switch from one to the other very quickly. And they will back whoever they think is best equipped to beat Harper who most of them despise. So when they saw that Ignatieff was heading for catastrophe they threw their support behind Layton, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens again, in other parts of Canada...

  4. Noah Patterson8:27 AM

    I just hope this trend continues and isn't a brief flash spurred by the NDP's success in Alberta (which was not a vote *for* the NDP, but a vote *against* the Conservatives) before settling back into the same old tired trends by October.

    1. hi Noah...well I obviously do too, but the trend line for the NDP is practically straight up and that tells me that something significant may be happening. The Alberta election I believe made many Canadians start thinking that maybe the NDP is the party that can best defeat the Cons. I believe that many progressives are going take a hard look at both Trudeau and Mulcair, and whoever has an advantage in the last weeks of the campaign is going to get the support of many others, who are determined to do ANYTHING to defeat the Cons. Time will tell, but Harper is running out of time to boost his numbers, so I'm pretty optimistic....

  5. e.a.f.4:27 PM

    What the Alberta election may have done is demonstrate that even in "right-wing" Alberta, people can have had enough of the Conservatives and they decided the sky would not fall in if they voted NDP.

    Now we have to see if the rest of the country feels the same. The sky will not fall in if the NDP is elected to office. It will be up to the federal NDP to run a good campaign and not screw it up like the B.C. NDP did.

    Notley and Muclair are both lawyers and both are smart enough to not get caught up in stupid questions. they are articulate.

  6. When I was a kid they used to call Alberta "The Bible Belt" men and women were segregated at the watering holes [Taverns] they were not allowed to sit together even if they were husband and wife. Things do change.

    Alberta Ontario and Quebec together are approximately 73% of the population of Canada responsible for approximately 74% of GDP 71% of energy exports 70% of merchandise exports and 80% of domestic imports. They have all of 'The Big Three" abandoned the con party. So if they have 3/4 of the population of Canada and they are holding their noses at the stink of the Harper-cons the heave Steve movement is up and running. Bout time eh?

    "Together, Ontario, Alberta and Quebec collectively are the home of 73 per cent of Canada’s population, produce 74 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product, are responsible for 71 per cent of Canada’s energy exports, 70 per cent of all Canada’s merchandise exports and about 80 per cent of our imports by dollar value."

    Quote from:

    Um the winds of change are blowing the big three have removed provincial PC governments I'm stunned and pleased with Rachel and her orange 'Notley Crue' success in Steve Joe Harpo's former strangle hold on Calgarians and Albertans.

    Fuck you Steve you are gone :)

    Oh how I love those winds of change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ;) Mogs