Thursday, May 14, 2015
Breaking: A New Poll Suggests the NDP is Surging
For months Tom Mulcair and the NDP have been creeping up in the polls.
But this latest EKOS poll is still stunning.
For now it's starting to look like an orange surge.
The federal horserace has turned into a remarkable three-way tie, driven by a surge in support for the New Democrats. Just three points now separate the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals, an echo of the results we saw about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.
Because if this is an amazing result:
Based on these results, poll guru Paul Barber — author of the TC Norris blog — estimates the Conservatives would earn a slim minority of 125 seats, with the New Democrats retaining Official Opposition status with 117. The Liberals would again be in third place with 94.
This graph gives you an even better idea of what appears to be happening.
The story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than one of a decline in their rivals’ fortunes. The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week, while the Conservatives and Liberals are both down just slightly from their rolling average over the past few weeks.
And it's all bad news for Stephen Harper.
Stephen Harper’s approval rating was already in last place when this poll was in the field; it has dropped again, and sharply, along with the directional approval rating of his government, which has reached a new low for this year. Coupled with extremely poor directional measures on both the country and federal government, one could argue that Mr. Harper may be poised for further decline.
And although as I said at the top, I am stunned by the sudden surge, I'm not really surprised.
Because although Frank Graves says it can't be attributed solely to Rachel Notley's amazing victory in Alberta...
There are clear echoes here of last week’s shocking upset in the Alberta election, but it would be a mistake to see the NDP’s rise as merely a bounce effect from Alberta. In fact, the past four months have shown a clear pattern of growing support for the New Democrats, lifting them up from 18 points in early February to 29 points today.
I can't help but believe that many Canadians must be thinking that if the NDP can win in Alberta it can win ANYWHERE.
Just like I can't help believe, that although Justin Trudeau is still holding his own, his support for Bill C-51 must be hurting him...
Especially with the Anyone But Harper crowd and the university-educated demographic.
Two trends appear to be driving NDP success. The first is the party’s dramatic capture of the university-educated vote, which was critical to the Alberta NDP’s historic victory last week. It’s not clear if this is a ‘strategic’ response from the promiscuous progressive segment of the electorate (people who are more focused on defeating Stephen Harper than they are on electing any particular party) or just the result of rising resentment of the Harper government’s perceived anti-intellectualism.
And voters in Quebec who also seem to be abandoning him.
The second factor is the NDP taking a decisive lead in what was a logjammed Quebec race.
Because that is a real surge. Or the beginning of another orange wave.
And my friends in Montreal told me that a Mulcair rally last week was packed to the rafters including lots and lots of young people.
But whatever the reason, it is good news for all progressives. Because it shows that even after spending gazillions of our dollars to promote himself Stephen Harper is still going nowhere.
And you know that this latest poll must be driving him CRAZY...
That dirty dictator's day is coming.
The winds of change are blowing across Canada.
And we are going to destroy him...
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